本系列第一篇的结尾说，每过一道口，合规都是要交的过路费。这笔费用如今写得相当具体。华盛顿按计算能力给芯片分档，按最终用途给投资分档。北京看外国投资人有没有取得控制，看业务落在哪个牌照类别。两边都在把更多的边界写进成文规矩。The first piece in this series ended with compliance as the toll at each crossing. That toll is now specific: Washington sorts chips by computing power and investments by end use, Beijing sorts investors by control and licence category. Both are putting more of the border into written rules.

先看芯片。工业与安全局在 2025 年 5 月表示，不再执行 AI 扩散规则，并会将其撤销。到了 2026 年 10 月，《联邦公报》里仍未见撤销文件，规则条文也还留在《联邦法规汇编》。Start with chips. In May 2025, the Bureau of Industry and Security said it would not enforce the AI diffusion rule and would rescind it. As of October 2026, no rescission notice had appeared in the Federal Register, and the text remained in the Code of Federal Regulations.

替代它的办法，看 H200 就清楚了。工业与安全局 2026 年 1 月 15 日的最终规则，把 H200 和同类芯片从推定拒绝改成逐案审查，条件包括在美国检测，以及对中国出货不得超过对美销售可比数量的一半。围绕这项政策说的 25%，落地方式是依据第 232 条对进口到美国的芯片征税，不是出口收费。今年 2 月，许可陆续发出。路透 5 月 14 日报道，商务部已经放行向约十家中国买家销售的安排，每家至多 75,000 张，但一张也没有出货。The replacement is visible in the H200 case. A BIS final rule dated January 15, 2026 moved the H200 and comparable chips from a presumption of denial to case by case review. Conditions include United States testing and a cap on China shipments at half of comparable United States sales. The 25 percent figure was implemented as a Section 232 tariff on imports into the United States, not as an export fee. Reuters reported on May 14 that licences had been issued in February and proposed sales cleared to about ten Chinese buyers, each for up to 75,000 chips, but that none had shipped.

对外投资有另一套数字线。31 CFR Part 850 自 2025 年 1 月 2 日生效。相关模型训练所用计算量超过 10^25 次浮点运算的，美国人不得投资受管辖的中国 AI 企业。没有落入禁止档的，计算量超过 10^23 次要申报，军事、情报、监控、网络安全和机器人控制等特定用途也要申报。公开交易证券和指数基金不在这套制度内。COINS 法案于 2025 年 12 月 18 日生效，把对外投资制度写进法律。财政部说，实施规则生效前，Part 850 继续有效。Outbound investment has numerical lines. Under 31 CFR Part 850, in force since January 2, 2025, investment in a covered Chinese AI business is prohibited if the relevant model was trained using more than 10^25 floating point operations. Notification is required above 10^23 operations, and for specified military, intelligence, surveillance, cybersecurity and robotics uses. Publicly traded securities and index funds sit outside the regime. The COINS Act, enacted on December 18, 2025, put the programme into statute. Treasury says Part 850 continues until implementing rules take effect.

下一版草案走得更远。财政部在 2026 年 10 月 26 日公布拟议的 Part 851，意见征求到 12 月 7 日。草案要取消 AI 计算门槛，凡受管辖外国主体开发其所称的「超级智能」，一律禁止，范围从生成式系统到机器人和自动驾驶。草案还要把生物技术单列为一个范围很宽的禁止类别。这一段写的是提案，不是已经生效的法律。The next draft goes further. Treasury published a proposed Part 851 on October 26, 2026, with comments due by December 7. It would remove the AI computing threshold and prohibit covered foreign persons from developing what the draft calls superintelligence, from generative systems to robots and autonomous driving. Biotechnology would become a broad prohibited category of its own. This is a proposal, not law.

对外投资制度开出的第一张罚单，说明申报不是走形式。财政部在 2026 年 10 月 7 日公布，Amidi LLC 受罚 200,000 美元。它控制的一只中国基金直接投资了上海的 Noematrix，金额只有 92,478 美元，却没有为其中的机器人控制业务提交应交的申报。The first penalty shows why notification matters. Treasury announced on October 7, 2026 that Amidi LLC would pay $200,000 after a China fund it controlled invested $92,478 in Shanghai based Noematrix and failed to file the required notification for a robotics control business.

中国对入境投资的审查，问的是另一个问题：谁控制这门生意。《外商投资安全审查办法》自 2021 年 1 月 18 日施行。军工等领域，任何比例都要申报。在重要信息技术、关键技术等敏感领域，外国投资人取得实际控制时触发申报。实际控制可以是持股 50%，也可以是比例更低，但表决权足以决定重大事项，或对企业有重大影响。没有这些权利的被动少数股权，通常不触发审查。China's inbound review asks who controls the business. Under measures in force since January 18, 2021, any stake in a military related investment requires a filing. In sensitive sectors, including important information technology and key technologies, filing is triggered by actual control: 50 percent, or a smaller stake with decisive voting power or major influence over the business. A passive minority stake normally does not trigger review.

2026 年 4 月 27 日，安全审查工作机制办公室禁止 Meta 收购 Manus，并责令撤销这笔已经交割四个月的交易。这是这套制度下第一例公开确认的撤销。On April 27, 2026, the review office prohibited Meta's acquisition of Manus and ordered it unwound, four months after closing. It was the first publicly confirmed reversal under the system.

做交易的人如今先问的，已经不是价格，是对方的控制安排能不能过两边的审查。People doing deals now ask first not about price, but whether the other side's control arrangements can pass review on both sides.

牌照在中国划出第二条线。2024 年版负面清单把多数增值电信业务的外资股比上限留在 50%，基础电信则要求中方控股。清单里没有 AI 或数据中心的独立条目，数据中心是通过互联网数据中心牌照落地的。北京、上海、深圳、海南四地试点，允许特定业务由外资全资经营，互联网数据中心在内。到 2026 年 6 月，累计批准 166 家。进了试点，不等于牌照、安全审查和数据规则被一并免除。Licensing draws a second Chinese line. The 2024 negative list keeps most value added telecommunications at a 50 percent foreign ownership cap and requires Chinese control of basic telecommunications. AI and data centres have no standalone entry; data centres enter through the internet data centre licence. Pilots in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hainan allow wholly foreign owned providers for specified services, including internet data centres. By June 2026, approvals had reached 166 firms. Pilot approval does not waive licensing, security review or data rules.

11 月有三个写在纸面上的日期。美国关联方规则的一年暂停到 2026 年 11 月 9 日。中国对 2025 年 10 月出口管制扩张包的暂停到 11 月 10 日，另一项对美从严措施的暂停到 11 月 27 日。美方在 9 月说，更广泛的休战会延长到 2027 年 1 月 10 日，中方官员则提到延长吉隆坡安排。但到 11 月 2 日的多次核查，没有找到改变这三个日期的实施法律文本。November brings three paper deadlines. The pause in the United States affiliates rule runs to November 9, 2026. China's pause on its October 2025 export control expansion runs to November 10, and a separate pause on stricter United States directed controls runs to November 27. In September, Washington said the wider truce would be extended to January 10, 2027, and Chinese officials referred to extending the Kuala Lumpur arrangements. Checks through November 2 found no implementing legal text changing those dates.

第三国也在真实需求周围写规矩。MGX 的首只 AI 基金在 2026 年 7 月 1 日以 490 亿美元关账。印度在 2026 年 3 月 15 日开了一道窄门。按 Press Note 2，来自陆地接壤国家的受益所有人在 10% 或以下、且不取得控制时，可以走自动通道。马来西亚投资、贸易和工业部在 2025 年 7 月 14 日表示，美国原产高性能 AI 芯片的出口、转运和过境，要取得战略贸易许可。Third countries are writing rules around real demand. MGX closed its first AI fund at $49 billion on July 1, 2026. India opened a narrow door on March 15, 2026. Under Press Note 2, a land border country beneficial owner can use the automatic route at 10 percent or below if it does not take control. Malaysia said on July 14, 2025 that export, transshipment and transit of United States origin high performance AI chips would require a strategic trade permit.

据美格视点判断，过关的价钱如今主要不是关税。是距离能不能拿文件证明，控制安排能不能讲清楚，还有一整套合规纸面，监管一问就能交出来。Our judgment: the price of crossing is no longer mainly a tariff. It is distance you can document, and control arrangements you can explain in plain terms, with the compliance papers ready when a regulator asks.